Thursday 12 June 2014

The FT on Abe

On target? Selected objectives of Abenomics’ ‘third arrow’

Labour and demographics 
● Goal:
 Make Japan’s labour market more flexible; diversify and expand the labour force by increasing opportunities for women and bringing in more foreign workers
● What has been done?
 Day care-related spending increased by a third to about Y700bn ($6.8bn) this fiscal year; visa periods for “technical trainees” in the construction sector extended temporarily (ends 2020)
● But . . .  
More aggressive rollback of job protections for full-time workers shelved; proposal to open door to 200,000 immigrants a year shot down

Corporate tax 
● Goal:
 Lower Japan’s corporate income tax rate from roughly 38 per cent to something closer to the OECD average of 25 per cent
● What has been done?
 2.4 per cent surcharge to fund tsunami reconstruction lifted in April, one year early
● But . . .  
Mr Abe has won backing to cut the base rate starting next fiscal year but the policy update may not contain a detailed timetable or an ultimate target level

Trade 
● Goal:
 Increase ratio of Japan’s international trade that falls under free-trade deals from 20 per cent to 70 per cent
● What has been done?
 Japan-Australia bilateral trade deal signed in April, including limited reduction of Japanese tariffs on Australian beef and other agricultural products
● But . . .  
Bilateral Japan-US trade talks remain deadlocked, stalling broader negotiations over the proposed 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership; Japan-EU trade deal also in limbo

Medical care 
● Goal:
 Turn Japan’s pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors into engines of economic growth
● What has been done?
 Pharmaceutical law amended to allow online sales of non-prescription medicines (with some exceptions); restrictions on testing of regenerative therapies such as stem-cell treatments loosened; approvals process for advanced drugs changed to allow for faster approval
● But . . .  
Doctor-supported rule that prevents patients from collecting insurance payouts if they try experimental therapies is seen as a big obstacle. The policy update may contain a goal of relaxing this rule, but how aggressively?

Special economic zones 
● Goal:
 allow specified cities and regions to carve out exemptions from national regulations
● What has been done? Law allowing creation of “national strategic economic zones” passed; six zones named in March: Tokyo (promotion of foreign investment); Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe (medical research); Fukuoka (employment); Okinawa (tourism); two cities in Niigata and Fukui (agriculture)
● But . . .  
Zones are more policy tool than policy, and no specific deregulation plans have been drawn up yet

Tuesday 10 June 2014

Max Hastings on 1914

Grand Admiral Tirpitz employed and English governess for his daughters, who completed their education at Cheltenham Ladies College.

Russia boomed in the last years before Armageddon. After 1917, its new Bolshevik rulers had become the fourth largest in the world, growing at almost ten percent annually. 

Max Hastings on Kaiser Wilhelm

He had no real thirst for blood but a taste for panolpy and posturing, a craving for martial success; he displayed many of the characteristics of a uniformed version of Mr Toad....Most of his contemporaries, including the statesman of Europe, thought him mildly unhinged, and this was probably clinically the case.